Roads to Sarajevo. Serbian ghosts. Murder in Belgrade ; 'Irresponsible elements' ; Mental maps ; Separation ; Escalation ; Three Turkish wars ; The conspiracy ; Nikola Pašić reacts ; The empire without qualities. Conflict and equilibrium ; The chess players ; Lies and forgeries ; Deceptive calm ; Hawks and doves -- One continent divided. The polarization of Europe, 1887-1907. Dangerous liaison : the Franco-Russian Alliance ; The Judgement of Paris ; The end of British neutrality ; Belated empire : Germany ; The Great Turning Point? ; Painting the devil on the wall ; The many voices of European foreign policy. Sovereign decision-makers; Who governed in St Petersburg? ; Who governed in Paris? ; Who governed in Berlin? ; The troubled supremacy of Sir Edward Grey ; The Agadir Crisis of 1911 ; Soldiers and civilians ; The press and public opinion ; The fluidity of power ; Balkan entanglements. Air strikes on Libya ; Balkan helter-skelter ; The wobbler ; The Balkan Winter Crisis of 1912-13 ; Bulgaria or Serbia? ; Austria's troubles ; The Balkanization of the Franco-Russian Alliance ; Paris forces the pace ; Poincaré under pressure ; Last chances : détente and danger, 1912-1914. The limits of détente ; 'Now or never' ; Germans on the Bosphorus ; The Balkan inception scenario ; A crisis of masculinity? ; How open was the future? ; Murder in Sarajevo. The assassination ; Flashbulb moments ; The investigation begins ; Serbian responses ; What is to be done? ; The widening circle. Reactions abroad ; Count Hoyos goes to Berlin ; The road to the Austrian ultimatum ; The strange death of Nikolai Hartwig ; The French in St Petersburg. Count de Robien changes trains ; M. Poincaré sails to Russia ; The poker game ; The ultimatum. Austria demands ; Serbia responds ; A 'local war' begins ; Warning shots. Firmness prevails ; 'Its' war this time' ; Russian reasons ; :Last days. A strange light falls upon the map of Europe ; Poincaré returns to Paris ; Russia mobilizes ; The leap into the dark ; 'There must be some misunderstanding' ; The tribulations of Paul Cambon ; Britain intervenes ; Belgium ; Boots.